Markets · Policy · Structure

Capital Writ

The Calibrated Forecaster

Prediction Markets Are Now Financial Infrastructure

How a 19th-century mechanism got rebuilt with 21st-century plumbing — and why the volume charts matter less than the feedback loops.

2026-03-29 · market overview
The Basis Trade Time Bomb

Inside the $1 trillion arbitrage that nearly broke the Treasury market in March 2020 — and why the same trade, rebuilt even larger, sits at the foundation of global finance today.

2026-03-10 · market overview