Markets · Policy · Structure
Capital Writ
The Calibrated Forecaster
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The Software Maturity Wall
Private credit lent $500 billion against SaaS companies on the premise that recurring revenue is bond-like. The recurring just stopped recurring — and $12.7 billion of BDC debt has to refinance into a market where every …
2026-05-17 · market structure
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Prediction Markets Are Now Financial Infrastructure
How a 19th-century mechanism got rebuilt with 21st-century plumbing — and why the volume charts matter less than the feedback loops.
2026-03-29 · market overview
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The Basis Trade Time Bomb
Inside the $1 trillion arbitrage that nearly broke the Treasury market in March 2020 — and why the same trade, rebuilt even larger, sits at the foundation of global finance today.
2026-03-10 · market overview