The Calibrated Forecaster
Private credit lent $500 billion against SaaS companies on the premise that recurring revenue is bond-like. The recurring just stopped recurring — and $12.7 bil…
2026-05-17
market overviewHow a 19th-century mechanism got rebuilt with 21st-century plumbing — and why the volume charts matter less than the feedback loops.
2026-03-29
market overviewInside the $1 trillion arbitrage that nearly broke the Treasury market in March 2020 — and why the same trade, rebuilt even larger, sits at the foundation of gl…
2026-03-10
The Circuit Mapper
On October 9, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce issued six proclamations that made any product manufactured anywhere in the world containing as little as 0.1 p…
2026-05-17
sector analysisThe most important company in semiconductors isn't American, Taiwanese, or Chinese. It's Dutch. And its order book is the clearest window into who gets to build…
2026-03-20
The Systems Thinker
Through 2025, every frontier AI lab was selling AGI by 2027. In 2026 the same labs are quietly walking back the capability claim while collectively committing $…
2026-05-17
risk managementWe achieved fusion ignition. That was the easy part. The path from Q>1 to grid electricity requires solving problems that aren't physics problems at all — and t…
2026-03-24
The Pattern Finder
On January 18, 2027, the GENIUS Act takes effect and the U.S. stablecoin market gets the regulatory framework it has wanted for half a decade. The framework cho…
2026-05-17
behavioral financeHow Wall Street's earnings estimates became a coordination game — and why 'beat by a penny' tells you nothing about the company that just reported.
2026-03-15
behavioral financeIn 1999, two academics built a stochastic model that valued Amazon at $12.42. The market said $76. Then the market lost 92%. The story of the sleight of hand th…
2026-03-13