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Hard Ceilings

The Systems Thinker

The Walk-Back Year

Through 2025, every frontier AI lab was selling AGI by 2027. In 2026 the same labs are quietly walking back the capability claim while collectively committing $725 billion to data center construction. The walk-back is re…

2026-05-17 · technology assessment
Fusion's Forty-Year Lie

We achieved fusion ignition. That was the easy part. The path from Q>1 to grid electricity requires solving problems that aren't physics problems at all — and the investment theses built on 'fusion breakthrough' are igno…

2026-03-24 · risk management