Evaluating Investments
Scenario Analysis for Revenue Drivers
Single-point revenue forecasts miss by 25% on average; decomposing revenue into drivers with probability-weighted, correlated scenarios cuts error.
intermediate 2025-12-28
Evaluating Investments
19 articles in this subtopic.
Evaluating Investments
Cash Flow Statement Signals Investors Should Watch
When operating cash flow lags net income for two quarters, earnings deserve skepticism; OCF/NI, FCF yield, and cash conversion cycle flag trouble early.
intermediate 2025-12-25
Evaluating Investments
Documenting a Thesis and Monitoring Triggers
Most investors can tell you why they bought a stock. Almost none can show you the written record proving it.
intermediate 2025-12-21
Evaluating Investments
Growth Metrics: Revenue CAGR, Same-Store Sales
Investors routinely overpay for growth — or miss it entirely — because they confuse total revenue increases with sustainable expansion.
intermediate 2025-12-21
Evaluating Investments
Using 10-Ks, 10-Qs, and 8-Ks Effectively
A five-step reading protocol for 10-Ks, 10-Qs, and 8-Ks, starting with the auditor's opinion, surfaces restatements before they blindside you.
intermediate 2025-12-07
Evaluating Investments
Analyzing Expense Ratios and Fund Costs
A 0.77% fee gap compounds into $451,000 over 30 years; turnover, loads, and account fees mean total cost of ownership often doubles the stated expense ratio.
intermediate 2025-12-06
Evaluating Investments
Valuation Multiples Overview: P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S
Valuation multiples are the first thing most investors check—and the first thing most investors misuse.
intermediate 2025-11-19
Evaluating Investments
Moats and Competitive Advantage Frameworks
A moat is a measurable ROIC-WACC spread, not a brand story; five structural sources and mean-reversion tests separate durable advantages from luck.
intermediate 2025-11-04
Evaluating Investments
Profitability Ratios: Margins, ROE, ROIC
Margins, ROE, and ROIC form one diagnostic system: positive net income can still destroy value when ROIC sits below the cost of capital.
intermediate 2025-11-01
Evaluating Investments
Checklist for Evaluating Investment Newsletters
Investors subscribe to newsletters expecting an edge—then rarely verify whether that edge exists.
intermediate 2025-10-21
Evaluating Investments
How to Vet Financial Data Sources
Most investors never question where their numbers come from—and it costs them.
intermediate 2025-10-19
Evaluating Investments
Balance Sheet Strength Indicators
Four ratio clusters plus a lease-capitalization adjustment show whether a balance sheet can survive a 90-day revenue shock without dilution or fire sales.
intermediate 2025-10-12
Evaluating Investments
Reading Income Statements for Key Trends
Most investors glance at earnings-per-share, decide "beat" or "miss," and move on. That's like checking your blood pressure once and ignoring the trend line.
intermediate 2025-10-09
Evaluating Investments
Red Flags in Promotional Investor Decks
Misleading pitch decks share patterns: pro forma numbers without GAAP bridges, inflated TAM, hockey-stick projections, and gross-only returns.
intermediate 2025-09-26
Evaluating Investments
Qualitative Factors: Management and Governance
Weak governance destroys portfolios in ways that financial statements never warn you about.
intermediate 2025-09-23
Evaluating Investments
Comparing ETF Tracking Difference and Error
The expense ratio is the stated cost of owning an ETF; tracking difference is the actual cost.
intermediate 2025-09-13
Evaluating Investments
Credit Ratings and Outlooks Explained
Roughly 75% of spread adjustment happens before a formal downgrade, so outlooks and CreditWatch placements carry the signal, not the rating change itself.
intermediate 2025-09-12
Evaluating Investments
Dividend Sustainability Checks
A 6.5% dividend yield often signals that the market has already priced in a cut—not that the payout is secure.
intermediate 2025-09-04
Evaluating Investments
Building a Simple Valuation Model in a Spreadsheet
Terminal value drives 60-80% of a DCF, so guardrails matter: cap terminal growth at 3.5%, floor WACC, and report a sensitivity range instead of one number.
intermediate 2025-09-03