Durable Goods Orders and Capex Signals
How durable goods orders data reveals business investment trends, including the importance of core capital goods orders for GDP forecasting.
20 articles in this subtopic.
How durable goods orders data reveals business investment trends, including the importance of core capital goods orders for GDP forecasting.
A comprehensive reference of key terms used in US economic data releases and analysis.
How to interpret the monthly retail sales report, why the control group matters for GDP, and what drives month-to-month volatility.
How regional Federal Reserve bank surveys provide early reads on manufacturing and business conditions, including interpretation of key survey metrics.
How the Purchasing Managers Index works, what the 50-level threshold means, and how to interpret manufacturing survey data for economic analysis.
How the two main employment surveys work, why they sometimes diverge, and what investors should focus on in the monthly jobs report.
How to create a practical economic indicator tracking system, including data sources, update frequency, and interpretation frameworks.
Understanding the differences between existing and new home sales data, what each reveals about housing market health, and their limitations.
CPI grabs headlines, Core CPI strips food and energy, and Core PCE is what the Fed targets at 2%; the wrong measure miscalibrates rate calls.
Aggregated S&P 500 results and BEA profits work as macro data: revision ratios, beat rates, and profits-to-GDP read growth and margin risk in real time.
Leading indicators warned 9-plus months before recent recessions while lagging data confirmed too late; match indicator category to your timeframe.
Understanding residential construction indicators, their leading indicator properties, and how to interpret housing supply data.
How the Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys differ, what they predict about consumer spending, and their limitations as economic indicators.
Advance GDP estimates rest on about 45% of source data and revise 1.3 points on average, so second and third estimates carry far more signal.
Understanding how inventory-to-sales ratios signal economic turning points, including sector-specific thresholds and interpretation guidelines.
Understanding the ISM Services PMI, why it matters more than manufacturing in the US economy, and how to interpret composite economic indicators.
Financial conditions indexes fold credit spreads, equities, volatility, and the dollar into one gauge of credit ease that can loosen even as the Fed hikes.
How the Federal Reserve measures factory output and capacity use, including sector breakdowns and their relationship to inflation and investment.
How initial and continuing unemployment claims provide real-time labor market signals, including key thresholds and interpretation guidelines.
Beyond the headline unemployment rate: understanding labor force participation, the U-6 measure, and what wage data signals about economic conditions.