When to Hold Cash or Defensive Assets
Understand when to hold cash, Treasury bills, defensive stocks, or gold. Learn opportunity costs, regime triggers, and disciplined redeployment strategies.
20 articles in this subtopic.
Understand when to hold cash, Treasury bills, defensive stocks, or gold. Learn opportunity costs, regime triggers, and disciplined redeployment strategies.
Learn to construct simple regime-based allocation models using trend, volatility, and macro indicators while avoiding common backtesting pitfalls.
Every major market crash feels unprecedented while you're living through it -- and every single one has been followed by a recovery that rewarded investors who …
Learn how the four phases of the business cycle affect stocks, bonds, and commodities, plus key indicators to identify each stage.
Understand the four stages of the credit cycle, from repair through downturn, and learn which signals help investors anticipate credit market transitions.
Price indexes tell you where the market went. Breadth tells you how it got there—and whether you should trust the move. When the S&P 500 rallied to new highs in…
Examine historical seasonal patterns in US stocks, including Sell in May, the January effect, and holiday periods, along with their statistical limitations.
How to identify late-cycle environments and adjust portfolios toward defensive positioning, quality assets, and reduced risk exposure.
Learn how copper, oil, gold, and commodity indexes signal economic cycle turns. Understand Dr. Copper, oil demand correlation, and gold as a risk indicator.
Explore how value, growth, size, quality, and momentum factors rotate leadership across market cycles and what drives these systematic return patterns.
Discover the key economic indicators investors track to anticipate recessions, from yield curves to jobless claims and PMI readings.
Explore how inflation and deflation regimes affect asset class performance and learn portfolio positioning strategies for each environment.
Learn how Federal Reserve liquidity measures and financial conditions indices affect asset valuations and market behavior.
Learn to build and interpret risk-on/risk-off dashboards using VIX, credit spreads, USD, and Treasury yields to identify market regimes.
Understand the difference between secular and cyclical market trends, with historical examples from 1982-2000 and 2000-2013.
In March 2009, the AAII bullish reading dropped to 18.9% while the S&P 500 sat at 676. Eleven years later, on March 23, 2020, the VIX hit 66, the put-call ratio…
Learn how VIX levels define volatility regimes, from calm markets below 15 to crisis conditions above 30, and what each regime means for investors.
Master 50 essential market cycle terms covering cycle phases, economic indicators, regimes, and investment strategies with clear, practical definitions.
Understand why the yield curve inverts before recessions, compare 2s10s vs 3m10s spreads, and analyze historical lead times and market performance.
Recessions destroy wealth in predictable patterns, and recoveries rebuild it in equally predictable ones. The investors who capture the most value aren't the on…