Measuring and Reporting Value at Risk
VaR is a quantile loss estimate, not a promise and not a worst-case number. Here is how to calculate it, backtest it, and report it without misleading anyone.
Options, futures, swaps, and the mathematics that price them. From basic mechanics through Greeks, pricing models, and risk management.
VaR is a quantile loss estimate, not a promise and not a worst-case number. Here is how to calculate it, backtest it, and report it without misleading anyone.
Treasury futures control $100,000 of notional on 1-3% margin, so hedges live or die on conversion factors, cheapest-to-deliver switches, and basis risk.
Position limit violations are accelerating as an enforcement priority—and the penalties are no longer symbolic.
The 2023 ION ransomware attack paralyzed clearing at 42 firms; derivatives cyber risk lives in vendor concentration and hard regulatory deadlines.
Position Greeks, the algebraic sum across all legs, reveal risk no single contract shows; a delta-neutral iron condor can still hide short vega.
The cross-currency basis is a live gauge of dollar scarcity, and its swings create mark-to-market losses hedgers cannot offset, hitting -100 bps in 2008.